Week 10 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 10 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

Forget Ezekiel Elliott, The Cowboys Really Miss Tyron Smith

Ezekiel Elliott finally began serving his on-off-on-off-on-off-on suspension this week, and everyone had an opinion on how much of an impact it would have the Cowboys offense.1

On Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, what was more noticeable than Elliott’s absence on the running game was the massive effect that an injury to Tyron Smith had on the Cowboys’ ability to protect Dak Prescott. Smith’s replacement gave up six sacks to Adrian Clayborn, the most any player has had this season and in the top-5 of all time. For context, Smith only gave up two sack in Weeks 1-9 and two all of last season. Continue reading “Forget Ezekiel Elliott, The Cowboys Really Miss Tyron Smith”

The Saints Defense (Not Run Game) is Why They’re Legit

The New Orleans Saints have been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL this year at 7-2, a big departure from last three seasons when the team finished 7-9 each year.

The Saints improved run game has been the talk of the town, with Twitter lighting up to label the Saints running success as a game-changer for the franchise.1 Continue reading “The Saints Defense (Not Run Game) is Why They’re Legit”

Week 9 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 9 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

MVP Update: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson Ascending

This is the Week 8 update for the points added formula I laid out in detail last week. The key to the calculation is the ability to judge all offensive skill positions on a single metric: their share of the additional points their teams scored over league-average expectations. The formula looks at every offensive play and calculates the expected points added for each, then splits those points between the passer/runner/receiver involved. Continue reading “MVP Update: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson Ascending”

Week 8 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 8 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

Finding the True MVP with Points Added

Carson Wentz put on a show on Monday Night Football against the Washington Redskins and the talk has turned to whether he is a legitimate MVP candidates in only his second season.

It’s fair to say that Wentz has made marked improvement this season and that he’s been very valuable to his team, but how to we compare him to other quarterbacks and even the rest of the offensive skill positions? Continue reading “Finding the True MVP with Points Added”