Last week I started posting the expected points added (EPA) for Week 1 by quarterback. The total figure aggregates the EPA on all the different types of play a quarterback was involved in: passes, interceptions, scrambles and runs. Sam Bradford led all Week 1 passers in total EPA and EPA per play, and his efficiency mark still stands at the top after missing Week 2.
One of the more well-known quarterback statistics that uses EPA in its calculation is ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (QBR). But QBR isn’t as simple as totaling up the various EPA figures, it adjusted credit/blame for the quarterback on various plays and also has a “clutch-weighting” on individual plays based on how close the score is at that time. I like QBR in concept, and I believe the analysis built into the calculation is likely sound. But, when there is a confusing or counterintuitive result in the final QBR numbers, we’re left guessing as to why QBR differs so much from fan impressions, or even the raw EPA figures. Continue reading “How Is Deshaun Watson Currently Second in ESPN’s QBR?”