Week 4 Points (and Wins) Added: Quarterbacks

This is the non-fantasy version1 calculation for the actual value – in terms of points the number of points added (PA) – by quarterbacks so far in 2017. In previous article, I was calling this stat expected points added (EPA), but now I’m shortening it to lessen confusion with my expected fantasy points calculation.

In addition to the points added calculation I outlined the methodology for last week, I’m adding a new column for projected wins. This number represents how many wins you’d expect a team with that quarterback to produce assuming an average supporting cast. In other words, it adds wins added to eight, or the wins you’d expect from an average team. I’ve used 36 points added to translate to wins in the past, but I’m now lowering it to 31 points added per win based on some new research from Ron Yurko. I also extrapolate quarterback’s points added over an entire season for the projected wins stat.

Again, Tom Brady leads the way on pace to add 2.4 wins, which would singlehandedly move an average 8-8 team to a 10.4 win season.

The most surprising jump is for Deshaun Watson, with the rookie ranking second. If you look through the components of his points added, you’ll see that running accounts for 70% of his total points added. Watson is unlikely to continue to add that much value on the ground, but his passing was much improved last week. Watson added nine points in Week 4 when you net passing, interceptions, defensive pass interference and sacks.

PlayerTeamProj WinsPts AddedPlaysPA/PPass PAInt PAPI PASack PARun PA
T.BradyNE10.418.31760.124.702.6-10.41.4
D.WatsonHOU9.814.31520.0911.4-6.15.8-6.79.9
A.SmithKC9.310.31520.0715.901-10.94.3
C.WentzPHI9.291760.0511.8-4.51.9-5.14.9
J.GoffLA9.291270.0712.7-1.71.5-2.4-1.1
M.MariotaTEN8.86.31280.053.8-3.81.2-1.36.4
R.WilsonSEA8.85.91750.037.8-3.30.3-67.1
C.KeenumMIN8.85.91100.055.102.2-2.61.2
J.WinstonTB8.64.71190.0410.2-5.50.8-3.10
P.RiversLAC8.64.61630.0312.4-6.53.4-40
D.BreesNO8.64.51580.0311.800-40
T.TaylorBUF8.53.91350.039-2.10.6-6.83.2
B.RoethlisbergerPIT8.32.41530.025.9-3.23.6-5.50
M.StaffordDET8.32.21600.0110-4.51.3-8.80
B.BortlesJAX8.321400.011.5-5.22.9-2.95.7
C.NewtonCAR8.21.71430.0112.5-8.70.6-7.44.7
A.RodgersGB8.21.51910.0115.5-7.73-11.11.8
M.RyanATL8.21.31480.0115.6-101.5-8.20
T.SiemianDEN8.10.91540.0111.3-8.22.2-7.50
D.CarrOAK8.10.512203.8-2.42.8-50
J.McCownNYJ8.10.413708.6-3.30.4-8.73.4
K.CousinsWAS8.10.414309.4-1.61.2-9.20.6
D.PrescottDAL8-0.115905.9-6.20.4-4.24
C.PalmerARI7.8-1.6212-0.0111.4-10.84.1-8.11.8
E.ManningNYG7.8-1.9180-0.018.6-7.61.2-50
J.BrissettIND7.7-2.2118-0.024.6-4.90.8-7.44.7
J.CutlerMIA7.1-7.3117-0.061.2-4.50-4.10.1
A.DaltonCIN6.6-10.6147-0.076.5-8.31.3-12.12
D.KizerCLE6.5-11.8179-0.071.6-13.32.9-6.73.7
B.HoyerSF6.4-12.6167-0.082.3-8.80.9-9.92.9
J.FlaccoBAL6.1-14.6126-0.120.6-90.5-6.70
M.GlennonCHI5.5-19.7152-0.136.6-10.70-10.3-5.3

 

 

  1. Aka “real” football

One thought on “Week 4 Points (and Wins) Added: Quarterbacks

  1. Pingback: Running from Shotgun Formation Works, Even in Short-Yardage – Predictive Football

Leave a Reply