This is the Week 8 update for the points added formula I laid out in detail last week. The key to the calculation is the ability to judge all offensive skill positions on a single metric: their share of the additional points their teams scored over league-average expectations. The formula looks at every offensive play and calculates the expected points added for each, then splits those points between the passer/runner/receiver involved. Continue reading “MVP Update: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson Ascending”

# Week 8 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 8 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

# Finding the True MVP with Points Added

**Carson Wentz** put on a show on Monday Night Football against the Washington Redskins and the talk has turned to whether he is a legitimate MVP candidates in only his second season.

It’s fair to say that Wentz has made marked improvement this season and that he’s been very valuable to his team, but how to we compare him to other quarterbacks and even the rest of the offensive skill positions? Continue reading “Finding the True MVP with Points Added”

# Week 7 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 7 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

# Week 6 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 6 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

# Week 5 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 5 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

# Kizer or Hogan: Who Should the Browns Start Next Sunday?

We have our first serious quarterback controversy in Cleveland after head coach **Hue Jackson** benched rookie starter **DeShone Kizer** and turned the reins over to second-year backup **Kevin Hogan**.

A day later, Jackson passed when asked whom he would choose to start at quarterback this coming Sunday, saying that he needed to go watch the tape before making that decision. Continue reading “Kizer or Hogan: Who Should the Browns Start Next Sunday?”

# Running from Shotgun Formation Works, Even in Short Yardage

An stat popped up in my Twitter timeline yesterday on how teams average significantly more yards per carry from the shotgun than any other formation.

Yards Per Carry by Formation in the NFL this year:

Shotgun: 4.82

Singleback: 3.88

Pistol: 3.86

I-Form: 3.82

Wildcat: 2.56

Jumbo: 1.34— Ethan Young (@NFLDrafter) October 5, 2017

This piqued my interest for a couple reasons: 1) You logically wonder if this is a down-and-distance issue more than a formation issue, and 2) I’ve been thinking for a while that the traditional way for running the ball from jumbo formation in short-yardage situations might not be the optimal choice. Continue reading “Running from Shotgun Formation Works, Even in Short Yardage”

# Week 4 Points (and Wins) Added: Quarterbacks

This is the non-fantasy version^{1} calculation for the actual value – in terms of points the number of points added (PA) – by quarterbacks so far in 2017. In previous article, I was calling this stat expected points added (EPA), but now I’m shortening it to lessen confusion with my expected fantasy points calculation. Continue reading “Week 4 Points (and Wins) Added: Quarterbacks”

# Week 4 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 4 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”