MVP Update: Brady and Wentz Continue to Thrive, Ryan Making a Run

It’s been a handful of weeks since my last points added update, and it seems like even longer ago considering that the focus of that piece was the surging numbers for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.

Watson, of course, is out for the year. Wilson hasn’t done poorly since, with some seeing the enormous burden he’s carrying as enough to make him the MVP. But from looking strictly at points added, Wilson has fallen considerably in the rankings. Continue reading “MVP Update: Brady and Wentz Continue to Thrive, Ryan Making a Run”

MVP Update: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson Ascending

This is the Week 8 update for the points added formula I laid out in detail last week. The key to the calculation is the ability to judge all offensive skill positions on a single metric: their share of the additional points their teams scored over league-average expectations. The formula looks at every offensive play and calculates the expected points added for each, then splits those points between the passer/runner/receiver involved. Continue reading “MVP Update: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson Ascending”

Finding the True MVP with Points Added

Carson Wentz put on a show on Monday Night Football against the Washington Redskins and the talk has turned to whether he is a legitimate MVP candidates in only his second season.

It’s fair to say that Wentz has made marked improvement this season and that he’s been very valuable to his team, but how to we compare him to other quarterbacks and even the rest of the offensive skill positions? Continue reading “Finding the True MVP with Points Added”

Week 3 Expected Points Added: Quarterbacks

This is the non-fantasy version1 calculation for the actual value – in terms of points the number of expected points added (EPA) – by quarterbacks so far in 2017.

I’ve made some adjustments to the formula in an attempt to better capture the value we can attribute to quarterbacks specifically, rather than assign  them the entirety of the value added from their teams’ passing plays. Continue reading “Week 3 Expected Points Added: Quarterbacks”

Quarterback Expected Points Added Through Week 2

Here are the expected points added (EPA) numbers through Week 2 for quarterbacks with at least 20 passes. This week I arranged the leaderboard by expected points added per play (EPA/P), since efficiency, not volume, is my preferred way to view the impact quarterbacks have on the game.

Sam Bradford still sits atop after only facing the Saints, but now familiar names like Matt RyanDerek Carr and Tom Brady join him near the top. The most surprising name is Jay Culter, who performed well in his first start, especially in terms of limiting turnover and only losing a combined five yards (-2.3 EPA) on two sacks.

Continue reading “Quarterback Expected Points Added Through Week 2”

Week 1 Expected Points Added: Kickers

Earlier this week I posted the Week 1 expected points added (EPA) for quarterbacks. What’s even more exciting than quarterback EPA? Kicker EPA!!

Seriously, I had some kicking EPA code lying around and decided to run the 2017 numbers through the model and calculate how much actual value these guys are providing so far this year.

Expected points is truly a great way to judge kickers, whether a kick is good or not is almost entirely on the kicker, as opposed to passing and rushing where 11 offensive and defensive players are all influencing the results to varying degrees.

The kicker EPA calculation is based on the actual points scored on each kick versus your league-average expectation for a play from that down, distance, yard line and time of game.

Kickers have vastly improved their kicking over the years, making anything under 50 yards a high probability make.

Continue reading “Week 1 Expected Points Added: Kickers”

NFL 2017 Week 1: Quarterback Expected Points Added

After putting together a quick analysis of Deshaun Watson‘s Week 2 performance from an expected points added (EPA) perspective, I decided that I might as well put all the Week 1 numbers out there.

This is a good way of judging a quarterback’s total impact by breaking out his EPA generated in various phases of the game: passing, sacks (negative), scrambling and rushing. Scroll the table to the right on to see all the EPA components.

To get some perspective on how much a point added is worth, Max Mulitz has estimated that roughly 36 points – as part of point differential – equal out to one additional win versus an eight win baseline. Keep that number in mind when looking at these numbers. Continue reading “NFL 2017 Week 1: Quarterback Expected Points Added”