Week 4 Points (and Wins) Added: Quarterbacks

This is the non-fantasy version1 calculation for the actual value – in terms of points the number of points added (PA) – by quarterbacks so far in 2017. In previous article, I was calling this stat expected points added (EPA), but now I’m shortening it to lessen confusion with my expected fantasy points calculation. Continue reading “Week 4 Points (and Wins) Added: Quarterbacks”

Week 3 Expected Points Added: Quarterbacks

This is the non-fantasy version1 calculation for the actual value – in terms of points the number of expected points added (EPA) – by quarterbacks so far in 2017.

I’ve made some adjustments to the formula in an attempt to better capture the value we can attribute to quarterbacks specifically, rather than assign  them the entirety of the value added from their teams’ passing plays. Continue reading “Week 3 Expected Points Added: Quarterbacks”

Quarterback Expected Points Added Through Week 2

Here are the expected points added (EPA) numbers through Week 2 for quarterbacks with at least 20 passes. This week I arranged the leaderboard by expected points added per play (EPA/P), since efficiency, not volume, is my preferred way to view the impact quarterbacks have on the game.

Sam Bradford still sits atop after only facing the Saints, but now familiar names like Matt RyanDerek Carr and Tom Brady join him near the top. The most surprising name is Jay Culter, who performed well in his first start, especially in terms of limiting turnover and only losing a combined five yards (-2.3 EPA) on two sacks.

Continue reading “Quarterback Expected Points Added Through Week 2”

Week 1 Expected Points Added: Kickers

Earlier this week I posted the Week 1 expected points added (EPA) for quarterbacks. What’s even more exciting than quarterback EPA? Kicker EPA!!

Seriously, I had some kicking EPA code lying around and decided to run the 2017 numbers through the model and calculate how much actual value these guys are providing so far this year.

Expected points is truly a great way to judge kickers, whether a kick is good or not is almost entirely on the kicker, as opposed to passing and rushing where 11 offensive and defensive players are all influencing the results to varying degrees.

The kicker EPA calculation is based on the actual points scored on each kick versus your league-average expectation for a play from that down, distance, yard line and time of game.

Kickers have vastly improved their kicking over the years, making anything under 50 yards a high probability make.

Continue reading “Week 1 Expected Points Added: Kickers”

NFL 2017 Week 1: Quarterback Expected Points Added

After putting together a quick analysis of Deshaun Watson‘s Week 2 performance from an expected points added (EPA) perspective, I decided that I might as well put all the Week 1 numbers out there.

This is a good way of judging a quarterback’s total impact by breaking out his EPA generated in various phases of the game: passing, sacks (negative), scrambling and rushing. Scroll the table to the right on to see all the EPA components.

To get some perspective on how much a point added is worth, Max Mulitz has estimated that roughly 36 points – as part of point differential – equal out to one additional win versus an eight win baseline. Keep that number in mind when looking at these numbers. Continue reading “NFL 2017 Week 1: Quarterback Expected Points Added”