Author: Kevin Cole

MVP Update: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson Ascending

On By Kevin ColeIn Points Added1 Comment

This is the Week 8 update for the points added formula I laid out in detail last week. The key to the calculation is the ability to judge all offensive skill positions on a single metric: their share of the additional points their teams scored over league-average expectations. The formula looks at every offensive play and calculates the expected points added for each, then splits those points between the passer/runner/receiver involved. Continue reading “MVP Update: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson Ascending” →

Week 8 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

On By Kevin ColeIn Expected Fantasy PointsLeave a comment

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 8 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving” →

Finding the True MVP with Points Added

On By Kevin ColeIn Points Added2 Comments

Carson Wentz put on a show on Monday Night Football against the Washington Redskins and the talk has turned to whether he is a legitimate MVP candidates in only his second season.

It’s fair to say that Wentz has made marked improvement this season and that he’s been very valuable to his team, but how to we compare him to other quarterbacks and even the rest of the offensive skill positions? Continue reading “Finding the True MVP with Points Added” →

Week 7 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

On By Kevin ColeIn Expected Fantasy PointsLeave a comment

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 7 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving” →

Week 6 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

On By Kevin ColeIn Expected Fantasy PointsLeave a comment

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 6 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving” →

Week 5 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

On By Kevin ColeIn Expected Fantasy PointsLeave a comment

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 5 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving” →

Kizer or Hogan: Who Should the Browns Start Next Sunday?

On By Kevin ColeIn Statistical AnalysisLeave a comment

We have our first serious quarterback controversy in Cleveland after head coach Hue Jackson benched rookie starter DeShone Kizer and turned the reins over to second-year backup Kevin Hogan.

A day later, Jackson passed when asked whom he would choose to start at quarterback this coming Sunday, saying that he needed to go watch the tape before making that decision. Continue reading “Kizer or Hogan: Who Should the Browns Start Next Sunday?” →

Running from Shotgun Formation Works, Even in Short Yardage

On By Kevin ColeIn Statistical Analysis2 Comments

An stat popped up in my Twitter timeline yesterday on how teams average significantly more yards per carry from the shotgun than any other formation.

This piqued my interest for a couple reasons: 1) You logically wonder if this is a down-and-distance issue more than a formation issue, and 2) I’ve been thinking for a while that the traditional way for running the ball from jumbo formation in short-yardage situations might not be the optimal choice.  Continue reading “Running from Shotgun Formation Works, Even in Short Yardage” →

Week 4 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

On By Kevin ColeIn Expected Fantasy PointsLeave a comment

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 4 Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving” →