Analysis for the Analytical Mind
I talked with former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders about the crazy week in NFL free agency (1:13) and what DFS/Fantasy can tell us about real sports (18:05).
In the 2018 draft, Cardinals’ GM Steve Keim traded away the team’s 3rd and 5th round picks to move from No. 15 to No. 10 to select UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen. Presumably this wasn’t a rash decision, and came with the imprimatur of coaching and, more importantly, ownership.
Continue reading “Murray or Rosen: What Can We Quantify About Their Chances for Success”
After some time off I’m going to try and get back into writing this offseason. I’m starting here with one of the least analytical pieces you’ll find on this site, but a topic with big consequences in the NFL: If the Cardinals are drafting Murray like consensus is coalescing behind, where will last year’s top-10 pick Josh Rosen land?
Continue reading “Figuring Out Where “Chosen” Rosen Goes(en)”
Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.
The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Recent (Weeks 13-14) & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points”
Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.
The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Recent (Weeks 12-13) & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points”
It’s been a handful of weeks since my last points added update, and it seems like even longer ago considering that the focus of that piece was the surging numbers for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.
Watson, of course, is out for the year. Wilson hasn’t done poorly since, with some seeing the enormous burden he’s carrying as enough to make him the MVP. But from looking strictly at points added, Wilson has fallen considerably in the rankings. Continue reading “MVP Update: Brady and Wentz Continue to Thrive, Ryan Making a Run”
Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.
The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Recent (Weeks 11-12) & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points”
There’s been a lot of talk1 about the Browns analytics-driven front office, yet on Sunday we saw an example of how their coach Hue Jackson did the traditional thing and passed up an easy decision – from an analytical perspective – to go for to 2 in the fourth quarter.
No one blinked an eye when Jackson called for an extra point after cutting the Bengals’ 14-point lead to 8. Going for 2 in that situation probably wasn’t given a passing thought by most watching the game. Continue reading “Late and Trailing by 14 Points: Always Go For 2 After a Touchdown”
Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.
The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 11 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”
Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.
The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 10 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”