MVP Update: Brady and Wentz Continue to Thrive, Ryan Making a Run

It’s been a handful of weeks since my last points added update, and it seems like even longer ago considering that the focus of that piece was the surging numbers for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.

Watson, of course, is out for the year. Wilson hasn’t done poorly since, with some seeing the enormous burden he’s carrying as enough to make him the MVP. But from looking strictly at points added, Wilson has fallen considerably in the rankings. Continue reading “MVP Update: Brady and Wentz Continue to Thrive, Ryan Making a Run”

Recent (Weeks 11-12) & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Recent (Weeks 11-12) & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points”

Late and Trailing by 14 Points: Always Go For 2 After a Touchdown

There’s been a lot of talk1 about the Browns analytics-driven front office, yet on Sunday we saw an example of how their coach Hue Jackson did the traditional thing and passed up an easy decision – from an analytical perspective – to go for to 2 in the fourth quarter.

No one blinked an eye when Jackson called for an extra point after cutting the Bengals’ 14-point lead to 8. Going for 2 in that situation probably wasn’t giving a passing thought by most watching the game. Continue reading “Late and Trailing by 14 Points: Always Go For 2 After a Touchdown”

Week 11 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 11 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

Week 10 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving

Look at past posts for the methodology on how the expected fantasy points calculation was enhanced using historical trends for fantasy points based on air yards, yards after catch, yard line and touchdown ratios. Data was pulled using nflscrapR.

The first table is a shorter version with columns for expected fantasy points, actual fantasy points and the difference in total, for rushing and for receiving. The second table, which is much wider, includes all the individual components for the rushing and receiving calculations. Unfortunately, the data I have doesn’t differentiate between positions, so running backs, wide receivers and tight end are all in the same table. Continue reading “Week 10 & Year-to-Date Expected Fantasy Points: Rushing and Receiving”

Forget Ezekiel Elliott, The Cowboys Really Miss Tyron Smith

Ezekiel Elliott finally began serving his on-off-on-off-on-off-on suspension this week, and everyone had an opinion on how much of an impact it would have the Cowboys offense.1

On Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, what was more noticeable than Elliott’s absence on the running game was the massive effect that an injury to Tyron Smith had on the Cowboys’ ability to protect Dak Prescott. Smith’s replacement gave up six sacks to Adrian Clayborn, the most any player has had this season and in the top-5 of all time. For context, Smith only gave up two sack in Weeks 1-9 and two all of last season. Continue reading “Forget Ezekiel Elliott, The Cowboys Really Miss Tyron Smith”

The Saints Defense (Not Run Game) is Why They’re Legit

The New Orleans Saints have been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL this year at 7-2, a big departure from last three seasons when the team finished 7-9 each year.

The Saints improved run game has been the talk of the town, with Twitter lighting up to label the Saints running success as a game-changer for the franchise.1 Continue reading “The Saints Defense (Not Run Game) is Why They’re Legit”