NFL 2017 Week 1: Quarterback Expected Points Added

After putting together a quick analysis of Deshaun Watson‘s Week 2 performance from an expected points added (EPA) perspective, I decided that I might as well put all the Week 1 numbers out there.

This is a good way of judging a quarterback’s total impact by breaking out his EPA generated in various phases of the game: passing, sacks (negative), scrambling and rushing. Scroll the table to the right on to see all the EPA components.

To get some perspective on how much a point added is worth, Max Mulitz has estimated that roughly 36 points – as part of point differential – equal out to one additional win versus an eight win baseline. Keep that number in mind when looking at these numbers.

*I obtained all data, including EPA calculations, using nflscrapR.

*I also broke out interceptions, scrambles and fumbles from the passing/rushing number to emphasize the effect of these unique plays.

PlayerTeamEPAPlaysEPA/PlayPassesPass EPAIntsInt EPASacksSack EPAScramblesScramble EPARunsRun EPAFumblesFumble EPA
S.BradfordMIN26.4320.823128.2001-1.8000000
M.RyanATL16.2330.493016.9002-2.912.20000
A.SmithKC15.8400.393521.2003-5.110.21-0.500
D.PrescottDAL12.2420.293811.1001-121.11100
J.GoffLA11.9310.382914.9001-2.7001-0.300
T.TaylorBUF8.9350.252712.81-5.22-232.520.800
D.BreesNO8.7380.233710.7001-2000000
D.CarrOAK7.9350.233211.7002-3.21-0.60000
M.MariotaTEN7.6450.17416.3001-11-0.622.900
T.SiemianDEN7.3360.22714.21-5.13-3.551.70000
B.RoethlisbergerPIT4.3370.123510.91-4.61-2000000
M.StaffordDET3.9450.094214.51-11.31-1.412.10000
C.WentzPHI2430.053817.61-7.21-1.52-0.4001-6.5
T.BradyNE1.9400.05374.3003-2.4000000
P.RiversLAC1.7340.05326.51-3.21-1.6000000
B.BortlesJAX0.5220.0221-0.400000010.900
A.RodgersGB0.25004112.11-74-6.834.5001-2.6
C.NewtonCAR-0.1270235.71-5.40010.81-0.31-0.9
D.KizerCLE-0.542-0.012910.51-67-7.62-0.43300
J.FlaccoBAL-1.818-0.11641-3.81-2000000
E.ManningNYG-5.341-0.13374.71-4.93-5.1000000
C.PalmerARI-6.951-0.144511.44-17.51-2.40011.600
M.GlennonCHI-7.844-0.18401.9004-9.7000000
J.McCownNYJ-7.842-0.1938-3.82-4.71-2.3001300
R.WilsonSEA-9.332-0.2927-4.2003-7.522.40000
K.CousinsWAS-10.948-0.233961-44-1632.810.300
D.WatsonHOU-11.131-0.36220.51-6.84-6.922.62-0.500
B.HoyerSF-18.440-0.46342.61-6.14-13.3001-1.600
T.SavageHOU-21.219-1.12120007-21.2000000
S.TolzienIND-28.223-1.2316-8.12-14.14-5.71-0.30000
A.DaltonCIN-28.437-0.77270.54-20.75-9.90011.700

4 thoughts on “NFL 2017 Week 1: Quarterback Expected Points Added

  1. nolan

    Can you give us some examples of what we should take away from this info?

    Like in your WR article, Dez and Decker should have had more points, while Hooper should have had less?

    Thanks!

    1. Kevin Cole

      The WR article was specifically focused on fantasy points. EPA is more of a “real” football analytics measure.

      As far as takeaway, I haven’t really dug into enough to say. Right off of the top I think it’s interesting that Dak is top-5 in total EPA, despite not playing particularly well according to most observers. I think some big things could be on the way for him against easier defenses.

  2. Pingback: Week 1 Expected Points Added: Kickers | Predictive Football

  3. Pingback: How Is Deshaun Watson Currently Second in ESPN’s QBR? – Predictive Football

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